Kentucky Derby Saturday at Churchill Downs

The first Saturday in May is upon us and the 2015 edition of the Kentucky Derby has assembled a strong field of three-year-olds in the run for the roses. All eyes will be on the Baffert duo of American Pharoah and Dortmund (pictured above when winning the Los Alamitos Futurity) who are the two morning line favorites. Jockey Victor Espinoza is searching back to back victories in the Derby after winning last year's edition with California Chrome and jockey Martin Garcia is in search of his first Derby win. Looking forward to another great race!


Selections

Race 1: 6-1-10

#6 Tarpy's Surprise finished a well-beaten third in his first start since March of 2014 and now comes into this race off a short freshening. I like that he owns two wins at today's distance including a win over this track. I think he can sit a good stalking trip behind the speed.

Race 2: 3-1-7

#3 Yockey's Warrior debuted with a very good looking debut and later finished a distant second in his most recent start at Keeneland when he set the pace and tired late. There's plenty of room for improvement in only his third lifetime start.

Race 3:  4-9-2

#4 West Village was caught wide last time out when making a good move late in the race. He appears to be the type of runner that will take to the turf but he needs to avoid getting into traffic trouble. He might be able to show more speed this time around.

Race 4: 6-4-3

#6 Cat Burglar has not been seen since last June but his dirt record is a nice one: 7-3-2-2. He's been working out well in the mornings and if he comes back at the same level he was when we last saw him, he will be tough to handle.  The long layoff might scare off some players and we might get a decent price on him.

Race 5: 6-2-5

#6 Competitive Edge has done nothing wrong in his three starts. He's fast, he's dominating, and he looks to be getting better with each start.

Race 6: 3-6-8

#3 Granny's Kitten debuted in July of 2014 and posted a visually impressive win for a first time starter. He went to the shelf and has not been seen since then. He returns in a tough spot but he's got plenty of room to improve and move forward. He's a big price of 20-1 on the morning line and I hope we get something close to that at post time.

Race 7:  8-1-3

#8 Judy The Beauty is a Champion that loves to win races and always fires a good effort. She looks too good for this group and she seems to perform well from layoffs. The only concern is that the last time she threw in a disappointing effort it was during this same race last year.

Race 8:  1-4-5

#1 Personal Diary is better than her last two races indicate on paper. She's making her second start of 2015 and the main key will be a firm turf course. The inside post should allow her to save some ground and unleash her late kick down the stretch.

Race 9:  2-4-1

#2 Bayern is making his first start since capturing the $5 Million Breeders' Cup Classic in a controversial running of the race. He's got terrific early speed and his workouts leading up to this race suggest he's ready to go.


Race 10: 9-8-7

#9 Seek Again was a head bob away from winning this race last year when losing a tight photo. He later finished his year with a pair of troubled trips and has been given some time off since the Breeders' Cup. He can fire a good effort if he gets away cleanly from the gate.


THE KENTUCKY DERBY
Race 11: 18-8-10-6

#18 American Pharoah: He seems to be on another level and looks like he will be able to get a clear trip from his outside post. Has enough speed to stay close to the pace and has shown he can rate behind the speed.

#8 Dortmund: He's shown tenacity and brilliance all while improving each and every start, he owns some valuable local experience when he won by over seven lengths over this track.

#10 Firing Line: He’s fired a good effort in every start and comes into this race off a sharp win that didn’t take much effort out of him. The two times he’s faced Dortmund, he was only a head behind at the wire.

#6 Mubtaahij: He showed a terrific burst of speed in his dominating UAE Derby win and he looks to be getting better. It’s tough to get a clear idea of how he will perform in his first local start but he looks to have some serious talent.

Bets:

Exactas:

$1 Exacta: 18 with All

$1 Exacta:  All with 18

Trifectas:

$.50 Cent Trifecta: 8,18 with 6,8,10,15,12,18 with 6,8,10,15,12,18
$.50 Cent Trifecta: 6,8,10,15,12,18 with 8,18 with 6,8,10,15,12,18

Race 12: 12-6-1

#12 Comfort ran a respectable fourth despite a troubled trip when stepping up in class and running in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland. That was his first start under new trainer Todd Pletcher and I expect him to improve off of that effort. His outside post should allow him to get a clear trip and allow jockey Javier Castellano to drop into a good spot.

Race 13: 6-4-9

#6 Bet On Bourbon showed improvement in his second start and could be getting better at the right time. This group doesn't have many standouts and a repeat effort of his last race might be enough to get the win in this spot.